Ottawa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

793
FXUS63 KTOP 041126
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm afternoon with storm chances by the evening.

- Some storms may become strong to marginally severe with hail of 1-
1.25" in size and isolated wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday with shower and non-severe storm
  chances.

- Warmth and mostly dry conditions return by Thursday and into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows northwesterly flow
over much of the central Plains and Midwest, ridging moving into the
4-corners region ahead of a cutoff low over the SoCAL/Baja region
and the main jetstream over the PNW, pushing moisture into the
northern Rockies. Influence from embedded mid-level waves in the
northwesterly flow and mid-level vorticity advection over the
southern Rockies has deepened a lee surface cyclone over
southeastern Colorado and western Kansas that has kept weak moisture
advection across the eastern half of Kansas.

Through the day today, weak moisture advection will continue across
far eastern Kansas as both the northern and southwestern cyclones
approach the central Plains. Widespread warm temperatures topping
out in the mid 80s will be expected ahead of the surface trough by
the afternoon hours in eastern Kansas as Tds creep into the mid to
upper 50s. This should set the stage for late afternoon and early
evening convective initiation along the surface trough with some
storms becoming strong to marginally severe. Parameters for stronger
storms seem to align best across east-central Kansas and Missouri
where moisture advection will try to erode the EML in place leading
to MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg. Deep shear does not look overly
impressive - around 30 knots of effective shear - so expecting
strong and mature cells to maintain a multicellular structure. This
should keep the main hazards as large hail, up to 1-1.25" in size
with isolated 60 mph winds gusts. Most strong storms should exit the
area into Missouri by midnight, but with ample upper-level and low
level forcing north of the frontal boundary, scattered showers and
weak convection will continue into the overnight hours and through
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and weak thunderstorm chances
will continue through Wednesday as PVA associated with a newly
phased trough moves over the Rockies. Additionally, northeast Kansas
will remain on the cool side of the frontal boundary Tuesday and
Wednesday so severe storm potential will be near zero with highs each
afternoon likely topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s.

The upper-level trough axis passes over the region Thursday morning
with mid-level heights increasing into the weekend. High temperatures
return to the 70s for Thursday through Sunday with the next chance
of widespread precipitation coming Saturday night as a PNW mid-level
wave advects into the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Expect low level wind shear to continue for the first few hours of
the period before surface winds increase by 8-9 AM. Southwesterly
flow will persist into the early afternoon before becoming light and
variable as a surface trough approaches from the northwest. Added
mention of VCTS at KTOP and KFOE for isolated convection potential
later this evening. Most convection should be east of the terminals
by midnight tonight as winds increase out of the northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer